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Tim Grau: Should Dean win, the times may well suit Latham

January 14 2004

COULD this month's US presidential primaries provide an insight into whether Bush-bashing Labor leader Mark Latham will move into The Lodge later this year?

The similarities between Latham and leading Democratic presidential candidate Howard Dean are remarkable.

No one is suggesting that voters in the Iowa caucus (to be held on January 19) and the New Hampshire primary poll (held on January 27) are the same as Australians. But the style, messages and background of the equally Bush-bashing Dean bear an interesting comparison with Labor's would-be prime minister.

Should Dean secure strong wins in the early primaries to decide the Democrats' candidate, US presidential critic Latham might strangely find himself closer to his American counterparts than he realised.

Consider this: like Dean, Latham has risen from relative obscurity to the leadership, surprising his opponents, the media and pundits. In doing so, both men have turned what looked like being easy election wins for their opponents into interesting contests at least.

Latham and Dean have grabbed voters' attention with their "straight-talking" style often using aggressive and even offensive language to get their message across.

They both have been vocal critics of US foreign policy, opposing the Iraq war and condemning George W.Bush as unfit to serve.

While Latham and Dean have little or no national security experience in the post-September 11 and Bali era, both have sought to neutralise the issue and are seen as having strong credentials on domestic policy with positive innovative ideas.

Like Dean, Latham's internal party critics worry that he is unelectable and an accident waiting to happen.

Critically, however, both have significantly energised the Left of their parties and begun to excite socially aware and disfranchised voters.

Yet, while being seen as left wing, an examination of their records suggests they are more centrist than they are characterised and generally socially liberal but economically conservative or moderate.

Their economic conservatism does not stop them from engaging in populist big-business bashing, rallying against corporate greed, executive salaries and declaring the need to limit excesses.

They seek to talk to "aspirational" or "grassroots" voters with a message of change, promise and new direction.

So far their message and style has made voters sit up and notice. Dean has a double-digit lead over his Democrat rivals and is marginally behind Bush in a head-to-head contest. Latham has more than doubled the Opposition Leader's approval rating and increased Labor's vote.

The first test of this new breed of politician comes next week when Iowa voters select who they want to challenge Bush.

The federal Labor caucus has already decided who will oppose John Howard as he seeks a fourth term later this year.

Will the straight-talking, aggressive ideas men be the choice of voters?

It is just the first of many tests for Dean, who knows if he wins the nomination the real contest begins, as a cashed-up, confident and incumbent President seeks a second term.

Dean, already under attack from his Democrat rivals, is well aware of the capacity of the Republicans to mount a hostile campaign against him.

He's prepared for it as he told Time magazine this week: "We're going to hammer them right back."

It is too early to tell if Dean will survive and ultimately be successful, but this month will deliver some early insights into voter attitudes towards the tough-talking anti-war leader willing to take on the conservative incumbent about his neglect of domestic issues.

The Howard Government's early attacks on Latham suggest it too will be determined to cripple Labor's young upstart leader.

As Latham faces an equally confident and conservative Prime Minister, ironically it may be US politics that Labor's leader follows more closely than ever before.

Tim Grau, a one-time adviser to former Queensland Labor premier Wayne Goss and ex-federal attorney-general Michael Lavarch, is the founding director of the public affairs firm Springboard Australia.