 Parties
ride poll seesaw 12 June 2004 On Tuesday, John Howard begins what could be the last two parliamentary weeks of his prime ministership. There are two very big ifs in that statement, the first being that he would have to hold a general election on August 7, by launching a five-week campaign at the beginning of July. Although there was a rash of speculation about an August poll, driven by the big giveaway Budget, it is almost impossible to get anyone to take a bet on it happening now. This doesn't mean Howard won't call a poll for August 7 – he wasn't ruling it out yesterday – as ultimately he will go to the people when he thinks he has the best chance of winning. That is the other question mark. No one can be sure of what will happen when Howard does test public confidence in his government later this year. The seesaw nature of the political contest, with polls swinging week by week and each step taken by either side analysed for its significance, is reflected in some new research into the standing of the Government and Opposition. A political partnership, based in Brisbane, between Springboard Australia and Online Opinion has just published the qualitative findings of Internet focus groups conducted the week after the Federal Budget and it makes for fascinating reading. The picture presented is a very tight contest reflecting a tiredness with Howard on the one hand and a tentative but still slightly hesitant interest in Mark Latham on the other. This is against a background of satisfaction with the economy but concern about values. Both Coalition and Labor voters indicated they were happy with the direction of the country, especially its economic strength – Australia was an "incredibly fortunate nation" and "not everything (was) right, but not too much wrong". Peter Costello's message that Australia has "weathered some global economic problems pretty well" appears to have found an audience, with some respondents boasting "we have the best economy in the world". This sentiment is backed by praise for Howard's "leadership" and "experience" and the way the Government has handled the economy. "They have kept a tight rein on the directions," one focus group member said, and another offered the Government could "take a lot of credit" for the shape the country was in. According to Springboard Australia's Tim Grau, a former Queensland and New South Wales ministerial adviser who has analysed the research, the twin strengths of economic management and leadership remain core advantages for the Government. There was an unsurprisingly cynical view of the Budget, with most people commenting it was aimed at winning votes, "a carefully targeted vote-buying exercise" and "targeted at winning seats in the next election". Others were more cynical, saying it was "bribery on a large, well-aimed scale" and "hideously populist and short-sighted". The focus groups echoed other recent polling by calling for greater investment in services, especially health and education, and there was also a strong sign that Labor's catch-cry that no one earning under $52,000 gained anything had hit home. "I don't earn over $52,000, I'm not in a young family, I'm not in aged care and I don't contribute to my super," one male voter in his 20s said. One message the Government will be happy to hear is that people were keen for Latham to spell out his alternative policies. "There is absolutely no detail to be able to make judgments," one respondent said. Others included "we need to see the fine print", "he has to show where the funds come from" and "what's Latham going to cut and where". More harshly, one voter described the Labor leader's Budget reply as "another airy Latham waffle". The general impression of Latham was positive, with people saying he was "starting to dig out his own space which is starting to appeal to people" and that he had "some good ideas", was seen as "a new broom" and a "welcome change". Others saw Latham as shallow and one said pointedly he had no trust in him or Labor to run the economy. "He states populist themes. I don't think he has the experience necessary to lead," a participant said. Interestingly, while people regarded the war in Iraq as "disastrous", "a real mess" and "all very bad", none said the issue would sway their vote. The mood was summed up by one group member who said "it's utterly depressing". Grau comments that the focus groups confirm the belief that the election will be a tightly contested affair. "The Prime Minister facing re-election for a historic fourth term, while having considerable personal negatives and the 'it's time' factor in play, is not a completely spent force," Grau concludes. "It could be argued his use-by date, if not already upon him, is certainly much closer now than it was six to 12 months ago. "Potentially most ominous for the Government is that resentment towards Howard is much stronger than any uncertainty about the Opposition Leader." Grau lists as Howard's clear strengths "his experience, management of, and the healthy state of, the economy" and says this is reflected in the constant attacks on Latham, his inexperience and Labor's past economic record. While Latham's fresh approach has "put Labor back in the race", support for the new leadership is seen as soft. "Voters are not yet completely convinced Latham has what it takes," Grau remarks. This division of opinion, with a weariness about the Government not yet matched by an enthusiasm for the alternative, coincides with public surveys which show the Labor Party in front with what appears a soft advantage. This points to a hard-fought, close contest in which how the respective leaders perform during the election campaign will be even more crucial than usual, as well as the ability of the parties to mount offensive and defensive strategies in a couple of dozen key marginal seats. • Dennis Atkins is The Courier-Mail's national political editor. |