| Two
surges occurring across the nation are causing considerable
consternation as to their implications. Springboard
Australia's Founding Managing Director, Tim Grau, examines
the economic surge and Labor's poll surge.
Kevin
Rudd and Labor's surge continued surge in opinion polls
has, for the first time in years, many seriously contemplating
a change of government later this year and its possible
implications.
The
second surge - Australia's ongoing economic boom - has
many bewildered why there would be a change of government
in these prosperous times and just how long can the
good times roll on.
This
week's national accounts revealed annual economic growth
at 3.8 percent, with buoyancy household spending; rising
business investment; an ongoing resources boom and most
industries and States showing growth over the March
quarter.
The
results were a welcomed fillip for the Howard Government
determined to reinforce its economic management credentials
in the lead-up to this year's Federal election.
The
positive results will enable the Government to hammer
away at Labor over its economic credentials.
Earlier
this week the latest Galaxy poll found forty-two percent
were worried interest rates would rise under Labor;
40 percent though the Rudd team was too inexperienced
and 37 percent were concerned a Rudd Government would
run up debt.
Ironically,
the danger for the Government is the risk that the economy
may over-heat and force the Reserve Bank to consider
interest rate increases - even before the Federal election.
The
other surge - Rudd's stellar poll results - continues
in most published opinion polls with all indicating
that if a Federal election were held now, Labor would
be swept into office in a landslide.
The
latest Newspoll had Labor at a record high of 60 percent
of the two-party preferred vote to the Coalition's 40
percent.
On
the primary vote, Rudd has taken Labor from 37 percent
under Beazley in November 2006 to 52 percent in May.
The
Galaxy poll, published this week, has shown some softening
of the Labor vote, but still in an election-winning
position.
That
poll has Labor's two-party preferred vote at 53 percent
and the Coalition on 47 percent, with the Opposition'
s primary vote on 42 percent - two points ahead of the
Government.
When
it comes to who would make a better Prime Minister,
again, Rudd continues to lead John Howard by a substantial
margin.
For
many, particularly most Government Members of Parliament,
Labor's ongoing surge has them scratching their heads
in wonderment given the booming economy.
Prime
Minister Howard even wondered aloud if Australians were
playing a joke and Health Minister Tony Abbott questioned
if Australians had fallen asleep.
It
is interesting to note that Bill Clinton’s political
strategist, James Carville, famously summed up their
1992 Presidential campaign with the slogan: “It’s
the economy, stupid”.
Clinton’s
dogged focus on this key issue carried him all the way
to the White House.
But,
with the Australian election only months away and opinion
polls consistently showing voter concern about the Howard
Government’s industrial relations reforms, is
it time to revise Carville’s mantra? Is today’s
slogan: ”It’s the workplace, stupid.”?
Despite
the strong economic conditions - with record low unemployment,
low interest rates, inflation under control, record
high consumer confidence and the best received Federal
Budget on record - the Howard Government is still copping
a belting in all published opinion polls.
Prime
Minister John Howard and Treasurer Peter Costello have
been at pains to highlight their successful stewardship
of the Australian economy. At every opportunity they
try to remind voters of the “bad old days of Labor”
with high interest rates, budget deficits and record
unemployment.
Opinion
poll after opinion poll still has the Government well
ahead of Labor when voters are asked who is best to
handle the economy.
In
addition to the recent Galaxy poll, the Age/ACNielson
poll published this month had twice as many voters saying
the Coalition Government is better at managing the economy
than the Labor Opposition, with just 30 percent of voters
backing Labor.
Despite
these polls and the Government playing to its strength
as economic managers, voters are moving away from them.
So
is it: “The workplace”, that is the key
issue swinging voters to Labor?
If
the polls are to be believed there certainly is some
merit in that argument.
The
most recent Newspoll specifically measured voters’
attitudes to the current industrial relations debate
and respective policy positions.
Disturbingly
for the Government, it found only 12 percent of voters
were more likely to vote for the Government following
this month’s softening of the Work Choices industrial
relations package. Slightly more voters, 15 percent,
indicated it would make them less likely to support
the Coalition.
By
contrast, 29 percent of voters indicated they were more
likely to support Labor following the announcement of
it’s “Fair Work Australia” policy.
Certainly the media, commentators, unions and the Labor
Party have jumped on these recent poll results to claim
this explains the massive lead Labor has in the polls
despite the strong economy.
In
their mind, the slogan is: “It’s the workplace,
stupid.”
But
is it just this?
A
closer look at Newspoll reveals two other interesting
figures.
When
voters were asked about the Coalition’s industrial
relations changes, a full sixty-eight percent indicated
it would make no difference to how they voted. And fifty-two
percent of voters said Labor’s policy made no
difference to they way they would vote.
That
appears to be an awful lot of people who are not making
up their minds on who to vote for at the forthcoming
elections based on the respective party’s industrial
relations policies.
Sure,
industrial relations has risen as a key issues for voters
in recent months, but it’s not the sole reason
for the troubles facing Howard and his Government.
Two
other oft-quoted campaign slogans might also be worth
examining.
“It’s
Time”. After eleven years of Howard, are voters
relaxed and comfortable enough to give the other lot
a turn?
Howard
and Costello’s constant reminder of the “bad
old days of Labor” may well be falling on deaf
ears for a large proportion of the electorate.
For
a start, any voter under the age of 32 has never voted
in a Federal election where Labor won, let alone be
old enough to have had mortgages when rates interests
were at their historic highs in the late 1980s.
Paul
Keating’s infamous “recession we had
to have” was in 1991, when even today’s
32 year olds were only 16. It was hardly at the forefront
of their minds then and probably isn't’t now either.
Not to mention today’s 18 year olds who were just
two years old when Keating told it like it was.
Another
campaign slogan: “Think globally, act locally”
may also be looming larger.
As
climate change and the environment rise as issues with
voters, particularly young voters, the Government is
confronting a new challenge. Having been climate change
skeptics initially and historically not seen as the
“greenest” of political parties, Howard
and his colleagues are left scrambling to play catch-up.
The
Age/ACNielson poll highlights their problem. More than
twice as many voters (Fifty-eight percent) indicated
that Labor is the best party to handle the environment,
compared with just twenty six per cent for the Coalition.
Voters
can see that climate change is real. In the last week,
the last month and last year, voters have experienced
or seen drought, tsunamis, cyclones, water restrictions,
melting ice caps and record summer temperatures. To
them it’s not an abstract.
The
Government’s industrial laws also are real. Voters
have seen, heard or experienced the impact of Work Choices.
In
contrast, the “bad old days of Labor” are
an ancient memory, or at best an abstract.
So,
when Howard and Costello rail against the risk of an
economic disaster under a Rudd Labor Government, they
are conjuring an abstract. And voters don’t seem
too scared at this point. They
are concerned, but not enough to prevent them from voting
for for Labor at this stage.
That’s
not to say Howard cannot turn it around as he did in
2001 and 2004.
His
challenge is to convince Australians that it is indeed:
“The economy, stupid”. And that his continued
stewardship is essential.
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