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For
Howard to win this year's election he will have to defy
historical trends as only two Prime Ministers have been
elected four times since Australia's Federation more
than 100 years ago - Menzies and Hawke.
Further
complicating the task for Howard is the apparent mood
of the electorate on key issues.
Tim
Grau, Director, Springboard Australia, analyses the
forthcoming Federal election.
The
last month has seen three Newspolls released that signal
a dramatic shift in Australia's political landscape
turning the once inevitable re-election of the Howard
Government into anything but certain.
It
is not just the 55 to 45 two-party lead Labor has over
the Coalition that indicates the Prime Minister's reign
and command of the political stage looks seriously at
risk.
It
is the combined analysis of other recent Newspoll results
that should really worry Government Ministers and backbenchers.
With
the extended honeymoon for Mark Latham continuing the
Prime Minister will have to defy the polls and history
to secure a fourth term for his Government.
Preferred
Prime Minister
Independent
focus group research conducted by Springboard Australia
also confirms Latham's elevation has had real benefits
for Labor and sends strong warning signals to the Howard
Government.
Consistent
with the recent Newspolls, Springboard Australia found
through its online focus group research, an upward trend
for Labor support and a renewed enthusiasm among some
voters for a change in direction.
Newspoll
has found that as preferred Prime Minister, Latham has
almost trebled previous leader Simon Crean's rating
up from a dismal 14 percent to 39 percent.
The
Prime Minister's rating has dropped from 65 percent
to 44 percent over the same period.
Latham
has also almost trebled the Leader of the Opposition
satisfaction rating from Crean's abysmal 22 to an unprecedented
62 percent.
Amazingly, Latham's historic satisfaction rating came
as a result of a 30 percent shift from "uncommitted"
to "satisfied". His "dissatisfied"
rating of 17 percent remained unchanged.
The
most recent poll also found Latham more caring, likeable,
in touch with voters and trustworthy than Howard. Crean,
by contrast, never came close to Howard on these ratings.
Even
on decisiveness, strength, understanding of the major
issues and having a vision for Australia, Latham trails
Howard by only a few points.
Click
graph to enlarge
Focus
Group Findings
Springboard
Australia's online focus groups confirm this shift in
voting patterns across all sectors.
Notably
Green and Democrat voters say they are more likely to
vote Labor and even a third of Liberal voters said they
were now considering voting for Latham and his team.
The
research found that voters tend to embrace Latham's
fresh approach "fabulous use of language",
"passionate, emotional" and "articulate",
a "leader and visionary", "not always
likeable but possessing a conscience and modern intellect"
were some of the positive responses voters expressed
in focus groups.
Voters
are still cautious of Latham and want to know more about
him and his policies. While some were critical of his
"wacky ideas", most saw his ability
to "think outside the box" and "be
talking about the future" as "refreshing"
and a strength.
The
challenge for Latham and Labor is to maintain his early
momentum and extended honeymoon.
As
one Labor MP was quoted as saying during last year's
leadership challenge, if Crean was in a cinema and shouted
"fire" no one would have moved. Crean simply
was not resonating with voters and they had stopped
listening.
Latham
has made their ears prick up, listen and take notice,
but it is too early to say they are completely sold
on him or his plans.
It
is clear the Government is also listening to the new
Labor leader and struggling with how to respond.
Despite
claiming before the leadership change that the problem
for the ALP was not the leader but its policies, immediately
after Latham's ascendency the Government focussed its
attack on Latham personally, seemingly counter to its
own initial strategy.
As
a result, the contest has become about Latham's vision
versus Howard's rather than the ALP's readiness for
government and the Coalition's stewardship.
Herein
lies the problem for the Government.
For
Howard to win this year's election he will have to defy
historical trends as only two Prime Ministers have been
elected four times since Australia's Federation more
than 100 years ago - Menzies and Hawke.
While
the "It's Time" factor applies to governments,
history suggests it almost definitely applies to leaders.
Even at a State level fourth term Premier's are now
a rarity.
Further
complicating the task for Howard is the apparent mood
of the electorate on key issues.
On
two fronts the Government may be in trouble.
Key
Issues for Voters
First,
the key issues that the Government campaigned on in
2001 are not as important now as they were then. And
second, on the issues that are now most important to
voters, Labor is seen as best to handle them.
Analysis
of Newpoll results on these issues illustrates the point.
In
2001, key issues in the Government's agenda and election
campaign post September 11 and Tampa were defence, immigration
and leadership. Other strong issues for the Government
were taxation, interest rates and industrial relation.
On
almost all of these issues the level of importance to
voters has declined in recent months.
From
a post-Bali high, defence has dropped from 63 to 46
percent; immigration has dropped from 50 to 37 percent;
leadership is down from 66 to 63 percent and taxation
has dropped from 58 to 53 percent.
By
contrast the issues that have grown in importance in
voters minds in recent times are health and Medicare
(up from 75 to 81 percent); education is up from 79
to 82 percent, family issues, welfare and social issues
are up too as is the environment.
Click graph to enlarge
Best
Party to Handle Issues
The
biggest problem for the Government is that it is these
issues that voters think Labor is not only best to handle,
but more able to do so than two or three years ago.
On
health and Medicare, Labor has a 9-point lead over the
Government. On education, Labor has an 11-point lead
and on welfare and social issues the ALP leads the Government
by a massive 16 points. Labor also leads the Government
by 12-points on family issues.
More
disturbing for the Government is these trends emerged
long before Latham became leader.
Click
graph to enlarge
Conclusion
It
is clear the Government is now seeking to make up ground
in these areas and redress the imbalance.
It
is also clear the Government will try to return the
political debate and run a campaign on its strengths
of defence, immigration, interest rates and taxation.
Whether
voters can be convinced again and return Howard for
an historic fourth time is the issue.
Prior
to the 1996 Federal election some pundits and many Canberra-based
staffers and press gallery members weren't prepared
to write-off Keating after his come from behind 1993
GST win over John Hewson. "Keating could pull another
rabbit out of the hat" they speculated.
After
Howard's 2001 "Tampa" win, many again are
speculating about political wizardry from Prime Minister
Howard.
History
and recent polls, however, suggest that like Keating
he could become more voter road kill.
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