| The
strength of the US-Australian Alliance has received
much attention since 9/11 and the Iraq War, but the
closeness of the two nations could prove telling for
Prime Minister Howard and insightful for Mark Latham.
Tim
Grau, Founding Director of Springboard Australia examines
some remarkable similarities between the political moods
in both countries.
The
electoral contest has evened up.
When
the leader has a chance to introduce himself voters
will be receptive to learning more.
A
growing number of voters believe the country is moving
in the wrong direction.
The
strongest message for voters centres on the aspiration
to renew the country.
The
country is desperate for a leader who will prioritise
addressing the nation's problems and creating a strong
country.
Voters
respond to a message that is aspirational and optimistic
about the future, particularly as the government lacks
a vision for the future.
Voters
are looking for someone who is reassuring on security
but asserts the need to prioritise our own country’s
issues and address our own problems.
They
also seek a stance that contains a central economic
critique, centred on jobs.
Voters
are looking for a leader who speaks of renewing the
country and underscoring a sense that we need to regain
something that has been lost in recent years, when ordinary
people and the country were the main focus and both
thrived.
Voters
want change and renewal.
That's
the mood of the electorate according to the latest polling
released in the past month.
It's
not polling undertaken by Newspoll or ACNielson. Nor
is it internal research by the ALP or Liberal Party,
though you could be forgiven for thinking so.
No,
this research and advice is the work of former US President
Clinton campaign strategist James Carville, on the mood
of the American electorate.
Carville
and Clinton's former pollster, Stan Greenberg’s,
electoral strategy memorandum sets out the results of
their latest research which should not only be a cause
of concern for the Bush Republican White House, but
could also alert the Howard Coalition Government to
a significant shift in voter sentiment.
Having
hitched his star to George W Bush, Prime Minister Howard
may now find himself sharing more in common with his
conservative counterpart than he may want.
Carville
and Greenberg’s polling was their first real head-to-head
research conducted between the incumbent Bush and the
presumptive Democrat Presidential candidate John Kerry.
The
renowned political strategists concluded that not only
was Bush vulnerable but that the messages that Kerry
was using were resonating with voters.
Recent
published polls in both the USA and Australia suggest
a similar shift and sentiment among key voters.
Carville
and Greenberg’s strategy memorandum reveals that
voters believe the country is moving in the wrong direction.
Bush’s job approval rating and personal attributes
are declining, or at best, stable leaving him in danger.
As
well voters are increasingly concerned about the economy
and healthcare is seen as a “very serious problem”.
Disturbingly
for Bush, Carville’s poll found that barely half
the country believes Bush has a hopeful vision for the
country.
More
notably, these results were found before the latest
crises in Iraq.
For
us in Australia, also facing a national election later
this year, it is remarkable how similar the politics
and campaigns are playing out.
Even
after the “out-by-Christmas” statements
by Labor leader, Mark Latham, the most recent Australian
polls have found Latham’s personal approval rating
at record highs and the party’s position rebounding
from record lows.
The
new Leader of the Opposition is now seen as more caring,
likeable, in touch with voters and trustworthy than
Howard. Latham is also regarded almost as equally as
decisive, strong, understanding of the major issues
and having a vision for Australia as the dogged Howard.
Prime
Minister Howard’s approval rating has declined,
the two-party preferred vote has the Government well
behind and Labor is viewed as best to handle key issues
like healthcare and education.
Even
like the US Democrats, Labor has narrowed the gap on
critical issues like national security in recent months.
As
are the Democrats, Labor is unified and the polls showing
them closer to wining government than anyone would have
expected six, 12 or 24 months ago.
Reading
Carville and Greenberg’s research it is easy to
transpose “Bush” for “Howard”,
“Republican” for “Liberal”,
“Democrat” for “Labor” and “Kerry”
for “Latham” and believe it is the most
recent internal party polling undertaken in Canberra.
The
similarity between the research findings and the campaigns
being waged by the conservative governments and their
opponents in both countries is remarkable.
Just
last week President Bush said the United States would
not “cut and run” from Iraq, echoing Prime
Minister Howard’s mantra since Latham’s
declaration to bring the troops home.
With
the incumbent leaders facing elections later this year,
they are now confronting a different political landscape
than they might have expected less than twelve months
ago.
Positioning
themselves as international leaders waging a war, that
in the minds of many voters, was questionable and its
outcome still undetermined while an energised united
opposition at home is resonating with local voters’
concerns and domestic interests has left Bush and Howard
vulnerable.
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