| John
Howard has begun to hunt down Mark Latham and according
to recent polls is doing so effectively.
Springboard
Australia’s Founding Director, Tim Grau, reveals
how former Prime Minister Paul Keating’s “doing
them slowly” strategy appears to be working for
John Howard.
While
speculation has been rife about possible election dates
as pundits try to read the Prime Minister’s mind,
it’s the changing mood of the electorate that
provides a greater insight when the election will be
held and the likely outcome.
An
analysis of voters' attitudes about key issues and which
party is best to handle them reveals the Howard Government’s
fight back is working and Labor’s rise under Latham
appears to have stalled.
The
most recent Newspolls published in The Australian
show a significant shift in voters’ attitudes
the Howard Government and its management of key issues.
In
March 2004, these polls revealed the Government was
well behind the new-look Labor Opposition on the issues
that voters thought were most important.
By
June, while the Coalition still trails Labor on many
key issues the Howard Government has made significant
improvements across the board.
Most
notably, the Government’s position in these regards
has dramatically improved since October 2003.
The
key issues for voters still remain health, medicare,
education, welfare and social issues. Leadership and
national security are the other two key issues for voters.
On
all these issues when voters are asked who is best to
handle them, voters are in increasing numbers saying
the Government is.
In
the area of health and medicare, for example, the Government
has improved its rating by one-third.
Sure,
it still trails the Opposition as the best party to
handle the issue, but between October 2003 and June
2004 the percentage of voters willing to nominate the
Government as best to handle health and mediare has
risen from 27 percent to 36 percent – a 9 percent
increase – and within striking distance of the
Labor Opposition stuck on 42 percent. The same percentage
it received in October.
In
education, similarly the Government has significantly
improved its position – up from 28 percent to
33 percent between October and June.
On
welfare and social issues, the Government has improved
from 25 percent to 29 percent. On family issues, unemployment,
tax, defence industrial relations and interest rates
the Government has improved its rating between October
2003 and June 2004.
More
notably, on virtually all these issues they are also
in a better position than they were in the lead-up to
2001 Federal election.
It
is true Labor’s position on these issues has also
generally improved over this period, but between October
and June the improvements have been much smaller, in
the order of only one or three percentage points.
Confronted
with a surprise new Opposition Leader, the Government
appeared to struggle with how to deal with Mark Latham,
his style and his agenda.
Their
initial attacks on him seemed only to give him a higher
profile and worked to Latham’s advantage.
Latham’s
honeymoon seemed to be lasting forever.
Under
those circumstances Howard was never going to rush to
the polls.
He
needed time for the honeymoon to end. They always do.
He
needed time to minimise the Government’s negatives.
He did it in the lead up to the 2001 poll. He would
do it again.
And
he needed time for Latham to implode or explode. He
still might.
By
any measure, published polls or press gallery and opinion
writers' prose, Latham’s honeymoon has clearly
ended.
The
neutralising of the Government's weaknesses is well
underway and appears to be having some success.
With
Labor’s tax policy still to be revealed and the
poll date now likely late this year or even early next,
the implosion or explosion Howard has been waiting for
still might deliver him the “sweetest victory
of all”.
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