An Electoral Strategy Memo

An Electoral Strategy Memo

The strength of the US-Australian Alliance has received much attention since 9/11 and the Iraq War, but the closeness of the two nations could prove telling for Prime Minister Howard and insightful for Mark Latham.

Tim Grau, Founding Director of Springboard Australia examines some remarkable similarities between the political moods in both countries.

The electoral contest has evened up.

When the leader has a chance to introduce himself voters will be receptive to learning more.

A growing number of voters believe the country is moving in the wrong direction.

The strongest message for voters centres on the aspiration to renew the country.

The country is desperate for a leader who will prioritise addressing the nation's problems and creating a strong country.

Voters respond to a message that is aspirational and optimistic about the future, particularly as the government lacks a vision for the future.

Voters are looking for someone who is reassuring on security but asserts the need to prioritise our own country’s issues and address our own problems.

They also seek a stance that contains a central economic critique, centred on jobs.

Voters are looking for a leader who speaks of renewing the country and underscoring a sense that we need to regain something that has been lost in recent years, when ordinary people and the country were the main focus and both thrived.

Voters want change and renewal.

That's the mood of the electorate according to the latest polling released in the past month.

It's not polling undertaken by Newspoll or ACNielson. Nor is it internal research by the ALP or Liberal Party, though you could be forgiven for thinking so.

No, this research and advice is the work of former US President Clinton campaign strategist James Carville, on the mood of the American electorate.

Carville and Clinton's former pollster, Stan Greenberg’s, electoral strategy memorandum sets out the results of their latest research which should not only be a cause of concern for the Bush Republican White House, but could also alert the Howard Coalition Government to a significant shift in voter sentiment.

Having hitched his star to George W Bush, Prime Minister Howard may now find himself sharing more in common with his conservative counterpart than he may want.

Carville and Greenberg’s polling was their first real head-to-head research conducted between the incumbent Bush and the presumptive Democrat Presidential candidate John Kerry.

The renowned political strategists concluded that not only was Bush vulnerable but that the messages that Kerry was using were resonating with voters.

Recent published polls in both the USA and Australia suggest a similar shift and sentiment among key voters.

Carville and Greenberg’s strategy memorandum reveals that voters believe the country is moving in the wrong direction. Bush’s job approval rating and personal attributes are declining, or at best, stable leaving him in danger.

As well voters are increasingly concerned about the economy and healthcare is seen as a “very serious problem”.

Disturbingly for Bush, Carville’s poll found that barely half the country believes Bush has a hopeful vision for the country.

More notably, these results were found before the latest crises in Iraq.

For us in Australia, also facing a national election later this year, it is remarkable how similar the politics and campaigns are playing out.

Even after the “out-by-Christmas” statements by Labor leader, Mark Latham, the most recent Australian polls have found Latham’s personal approval rating at record highs and the party’s position rebounding from record lows.

The new Leader of the Opposition is now seen as more caring, likeable, in touch with voters and trustworthy than Howard. Latham is also regarded almost as equally as decisive, strong, understanding of the major issues and having a vision for Australia as the dogged Howard.

Prime Minister Howard’s approval rating has declined, the two-party preferred vote has the Government well behind and Labor is viewed as best to handle key issues like healthcare and education.

Even like the US Democrats, Labor has narrowed the gap on critical issues like national security in recent months.

As are the Democrats, Labor is unified and the polls showing them closer to wining government than anyone would have expected six, 12 or 24 months ago.

Reading Carville and Greenberg’s research it is easy to transpose “Bush” for “Howard”, “Republican” for “Liberal”, “Democrat” for “Labor” and “Kerry” for “Latham” and believe it is the most recent internal party polling undertaken in Canberra.

The similarity between the research findings and the campaigns being waged by the conservative governments and their opponents in both countries is remarkable.

Just last week President Bush said the United States would not “cut and run” from Iraq, echoing Prime Minister Howard’s mantra since Latham’s declaration to bring the troops home.

With the incumbent leaders facing elections later this year, they are now confronting a different political landscape than they might have expected less than twelve months ago.

Positioning themselves as international leaders waging a war, that in the minds of many voters, was questionable and its outcome still undetermined while an energised united opposition at home is resonating with local voters’ concerns and domestic interests has left Bush and Howard vulnerable.