Howard's Fourth Term Difficulties

Howard's Fourth Term Difficulties

For Howard to win this year's election he will have to defy historical trends as only two Prime Ministers have been elected four times since Australia's Federation more than 100 years ago - Menzies and Hawke.

Further complicating the task for Howard is the apparent mood of the electorate on key issues.

Tim Grau, Director, Springboard Australia, analyses the forthcoming Federal election.

The last month has seen three Newspolls released that signal a dramatic shift in Australia's political landscape turning the once inevitable re-election of the Howard Government into anything but certain.

It is not just the 55 to 45 two-party lead Labor has over the Coalition that indicates the Prime Minister's reign and command of the political stage looks seriously at risk.

It is the combined analysis of other recent Newspoll results that should really worry Government Ministers and backbenchers.

With the extended honeymoon for Mark Latham continuing the Prime Minister will have to defy the polls and history to secure a fourth term for his Government.

Preferred Prime Minister

Independent focus group research conducted by Springboard Australia also confirms Latham's elevation has had real benefits for Labor and sends strong warning signals to the Howard Government.

Consistent with the recent Newspolls, Springboard Australia found through its online focus group research, an upward trend for Labor support and a renewed enthusiasm among some voters for a change in direction.

Newspoll has found that as preferred Prime Minister, Latham has almost trebled previous leader Simon Crean's rating up from a dismal 14 percent to 39 percent.

The Prime Minister's rating has dropped from 65 percent to 44 percent over the same period.

Latham has also almost trebled the Leader of the Opposition satisfaction rating from Crean's abysmal 22 to an unprecedented 62 percent.

Amazingly, Latham's historic satisfaction rating came as a result of a 30 percent shift from "uncommitted" to "satisfied". His "dissatisfied" rating of 17 percent remained unchanged.

The most recent poll also found Latham more caring, likeable, in touch with voters and trustworthy than Howard. Crean, by contrast, never came close to Howard on these ratings.

Even on decisiveness, strength, understanding of the major issues and having a vision for Australia, Latham trails Howard by only a few points.

Focus Group Findings

Springboard Australia's online focus groups confirm this shift in voting patterns across all sectors.

Notably Green and Democrat voters say they are more likely to vote Labor and even a third of Liberal voters said they were now considering voting for Latham and his team.

The research found that voters tend to embrace Latham's fresh approach "fabulous use of language", "passionate, emotional" and "articulate", a "leader and visionary", "not always likeable but possessing a conscience and modern intellect" were some of the positive responses voters expressed in focus groups.

Voters are still cautious of Latham and want to know more about him and his policies. While some were critical of his "wacky ideas", most saw his ability to "think outside the box" and "be talking about the future" as "refreshing" and a strength.

The challenge for Latham and Labor is to maintain his early momentum and extended honeymoon.

As one Labor MP was quoted as saying during last year's leadership challenge, if Crean was in a cinema and shouted "fire" no one would have moved. Crean simply was not resonating with voters and they had stopped listening.

Latham has made their ears prick up, listen and take notice, but it is too early to say they are completely sold on him or his plans.

It is clear the Government is also listening to the new Labor leader and struggling with how to respond.

Despite claiming before the leadership change that the problem for the ALP was not the leader but its policies, immediately after Latham's ascendency the Government focussed its attack on Latham personally, seemingly counter to its own initial strategy.

As a result, the contest has become about Latham's vision versus Howard's rather than the ALP's readiness for government and the Coalition's stewardship.

Herein lies the problem for the Government.

While the "It's Time" factor applies to governments, history suggests it almost definitely applies to leaders. Even at a State level fourth term Premier's are now a rarity.

Further complicating the task for Howard is the apparent mood of the electorate on key issues.

On two fronts the Government may be in trouble.

Key Issues for Voters

First, the key issues that the Government campaigned on in 2001 are not as important now as they were then. And second, on the issues that are now most important to voters, Labor is seen as best to handle them.

Analysis of Newpoll results on these issues illustrates the point.

In 2001, key issues in the Government's agenda and election campaign post September 11 and Tampa were defence, immigration and leadership. Other strong issues for the Government were taxation, interest rates and industrial relation.

On almost all of these issues the level of importance to voters has declined in recent months.

From a post-Bali high, defence has dropped from 63 to 46 percent; immigration has dropped from 50 to 37 percent; leadership is down from 66 to 63 percent and taxation has dropped from 58 to 53 percent.

By contrast the issues that have grown in importance in voters minds in recent times are health and Medicare (up from 75 to 81 percent); education is up from 79 to 82 percent, family issues, welfare and social issues are up too as is the environment.

Best Party to Handle Issues

The biggest problem for the Government is that it is these issues that voters think Labor is not only best to handle, but more able to do so than two or three years ago.

On health and Medicare, Labor has a 9-point lead over the Government. On education, Labor has an 11-point lead and on welfare and social issues the ALP leads the Government by a massive 16 points. Labor also leads the Government by 12-points on family issues.

More disturbing for the Government is these trends emerged long before Latham became leader.

Conclusion

It is clear the Government is now seeking to make up ground in these areas and redress the imbalance.

It is also clear the Government will try to return the political debate and run a campaign on its strengths of defence, immigration, interest rates and taxation.

Whether voters can be convinced again and return Howard for an historic fourth time is the issue.

Prior to the 1996 Federal election some pundits and many Canberra-based staffers and press gallery members weren't prepared to write-off Keating after his come from behind 1993 GST win over John Hewson. "Keating could pull another rabbit out of the hat" they speculated.

After Howard's 2001 "Tampa" win, many again are speculating about political wizardry from Prime Minister Howard.

History and recent polls, however, suggest that like Keating he could become more voter road kill.